Issue #01 • Week of September 06, 2026
The Pursuit of Probability
The news tells you what happened. The markets tell you what happens next.
Welcome to the first edition of The Pursuit of Probability, our weekly look at what moved on Kalshi, what matters in prediction markets, and what excites us.
Prediction markets are becoming a new way for millions of people to understand the world, letting anyone put a price on what they think will happen next, from elections and interest rates to sports and the weather.
But as prediction markets grow, so does the fight over who gets to use them.
Across the country, states are trying to restrict access to federally regulated prediction markets. Casino interests are joining those fights. And courts are now considering a fundamental question: Can one national exchange operate under one federal framework, or can individual states decide which markets their residents are allowed to access?
Why should you care? Because this fight is bigger than any one contract. It’s about whether Americans should be free to participate in an open, nationwide marketplace for the future.
That’s why we launched Freedom to Forecast, and why every issue of The Pursuit of Probability will keep you updated on the fight to protect prediction markets, alongside everything happening on Kalshi.
Freedom to Forecast: One Market, Different State Lines
The legal map shifted again this week. A nationwide marketplace works best with nationwide rules. Here’s where things stand state by state.
Michigan
A state judge converted an earlier temporary restraining order into a preliminary injunction requiring Kalshi to keep blocking sports event contracts in the state. The order is preliminary and the underlying case hasn’t reached a final judgment.
Read the Michigan court orderIowa
A federal judge denied Kalshi’s request for a preliminary injunction against state enforcement, this is a ruling on protection while litigation continues, not a final resolution of the dispute.
Read more on the Iowa rulingNevada
Kalshi asked the Ninth Circuit to rehear its August decision allowing Nevada’s gaming laws to apply to sports event contracts. That ruling affirmed the loss of Kalshi’s injunction on sports contracts while sending the separate election-contract question back to the district court.
Read the Ninth Circuit opinion
The Big One Just Got Bigger
New Jersey Asks the Supreme Court to Weigh In
New Jersey has asked the Supreme Court to hear its dispute with Kalshi, after the Third Circuit sided with Kalshi and reached a different conclusion about federal preemption than other courts have. Kalshi’s position: an open, nationwide financial exchange cannot be regulated by 50 different regulators.
Follow the Supreme Court docketHowever, on Sept. 10, Robinhood Derivatives separately asked the Supreme Court to review the Ninth Circuit's Nevada prediction-market ruling. That means New Jersey is no longer the only route currently pushing this underlying regulatory dispute toward the Court.
Read more hereThat leaves an uneven map for one exchange.
We’re doing everything we can to keep access open for all Americans — but your voice matters most.
New at Kalshi
Commodities are growing fast Monthly commodities trading volume has passed $400 million just seven months after launch — four times the volume Kalshi’s crypto business had reached at the same stage. Oil, gas and metals are starting to look less like a side category and more like another pillar of the exchange.
Read more on ReutersGold and silver just went 24/7 Kalshi launched perpetual futures on both metals this week, bringing continuous, no-expiration trading to two of the world’s biggest commodities.
Read about perpetualsKalshi and Catalist Sports team up on tennis A new multi-year partnership gives Kalshi exclusive U.S. prediction-market access to Catalist’s live-streaming portfolio, plus official low-latency data across international tennis — more than 65,000 matches a year, including the World Tennis Tour, the Australian Open, and the Davis Cup. Fewer tabs between watching what happens and watching the probability move.
More on the partnership
Kalshi in Culture
Tennis already has a scoreboard. Now it has a second one.
- $888K
- Position size on Shelton to win
- $3.75M
- Collected when he won
- ~$50M
- Traded on the match overall
Ben Shelton’s five-set win over Carlos Alcaraz at the US Open became one of those moments where the market was almost as interesting as the match.
Read the full storyMeme of the Week
Think you’ve got the best Kalshi or prediction-market meme? Send it our way. One community pick gets featured every week — and some Kalshi merch.
Submit: Newsletter@kalshi.com
Behind the Market
Ever wonder what the people building Kalshi are actually like? Send us what you want to know — we’ll pick the best questions and get you answers straight from the source.
Submit: Newsletter@kalshi.com
One More Thing
Gary Oldman went on television, suggested the next James Bond has already been chosen, and said his fingers were crossed for his Slow Horses co-star Jack Lowden. Kalshi traders responded by pushing Lowden’s odds of becoming 007 as high as 61%. One loose-lipped spy. One very efficient market.
See the marketOutcomes discussed may not be not representative of overall customer performance or success. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance