The Pursuit of Probability

Issue #08

Four days until Election Day. Milwaukee has its first World Series title. And the S&P and Kalshi have teamed up.

Issue #07

Election Day is getting closer. The World Series starts tomorrow. And the markets are already telling a story about both.

Issue #06

The midterms are three weeks away. The World Series is around the corner. And prediction markets are giving people a new way to follow both.

Issue #05

This week, four more tribal nations announced prediction market apps powered by Kalshi. Kalshi launched its first stock index perpetual future. And Dancing with the Stars became another example of how probabilities are finding their way into pop culture.

Issue #04

This week, a fleet of coffee trucks began its journey across the Lower 48, bringing the conversation around prediction markets directly to communities across the country.

Issue #03

The questions were familiar. What changed was what people started doing with the answers.

Issue #02

Rates, football, small-business risk and institutional market data all ended up speaking the same language: probability. The Fed’s quarter-point hike had reached 88% on Kalshi before Wednesday’s decision.

Issue #01

Welcome to the first edition of The Pursuit of Probability, our weekly look at what moved on Kalshi, what matters in prediction markets, and what excites us.