Issue #03 • Week of September 20, 2026
The Pursuit of Probability
Prediction markets got more useful this week.
The questions were familiar. What changed was what people started doing with the answers.
Public launched AI agents that can use Kalshi probabilities as signals for actions elsewhere in a portfolio. The Atlantic Council is bringing Kalshi market data into a new center studying the economics of sports. And a movie-theater chain is using a market to manage the risk of Hollywood simply not releasing enough movies.
A probability can be a forecast. It can also be a hedge, a research input, or an instruction to software.
That is the shift worth watching: less like a destination, more like infrastructure.
Freedom to Forecast
Missouri became the latest state to weigh in this week, with Attorney General Catherine Hanaway sending cease-and-desist letters to Kalshi and five other operators over sports event contracts.
At the federal level, the CFTC issued new guidance on “mention markets”, while New Jersey’s Supreme Court petition remains pending.
The bigger picture is unchanged: courts and regulators are still working through how one federally regulated prediction market fits alongside state rules.
Join the movement. Join Freedom to Forecast.
Power, Priced
The American Power Index moved further toward Democrats this week. After ending last week at +2.70 D, KPOW now reads +4.30 D, a 1.6-point shift. Kalshi’s Senate-control market has also continued moving in Democrats’ direction, with Democrats now around 61% to control the Senate; Kalshi Research noted earlier this week that the contract had reached a cycle high around 60%.
KPOW turns a sprawling question, who holds political power in America, into one market-based number. It combines current control with forward-looking signals for the House, Senate and presidency, plus government-function inputs. The formula is weighted 25% to present control and 75% to future expectations, on a scale from +50D to +50R. It is an indicator, not a poll or a tradable contract, and its inputs can move as market prices change.
One chart, a lot of politics.
Learn more about how KPOW works
New at Kalshi
AI agents get a probability feed: Public launched AI Agents for Prediction Markets with Kalshi as its event-contract partner. Members can trade an event directly or tell an agent to monitor probabilities and act on those signals elsewhere in a portfolio. A market price is no longer just something to read. Now software can do something with it.
Institutional margin goes to the CFTC: Kalshi Klear asked the CFTC to approve risk-based margin for a limited set of event contracts. The proposal is aimed at longer-dated positions and qualified participants, and excludes sports, culture and mention markets. It is a request, not an approval. If approved, it would bring another familiar piece of derivatives infrastructure to event contracts.
Sports probabilities become research data: The Atlantic Council launched its Power of Sports Center with Kalshi as a founding partner. The center plans to incorporate Kalshi market data into work examining the economic impact of events including the Olympics, Formula 1, the Super Bowl and the World Cup. Probability data as a research input, not just a forecast.
A Tribal-owned front door: The Tunica-Biloxi Tribe of Louisiana announced SaltTrade Derivatives, a Tribal-owned prediction-market application being developed with Kalshi. The Tribe says the app will be powered by Kalshi, with additional launch details still to come.
Kalshi in Culture
AGT became a live repricing exercise: Nene Royal entered the final performances of America’s Got Talent at roughly 76% on Kalshi. After performing, she moved to 94%. Then she won Season 21.
One performance. Eighteen points. Then confetti.
Check out the AGT winner market.
Markets at Work
Julie and Samuel run La Méchante, handmaking savory and sweet tarts all week to sell at Smorgasburg Market in Williamsburg on Saturdays and at Columbus Circle on Sundays.
For an outdoor vendor, one rainy day can wipe out a week of work.
So they started hedging rain on Kalshi. At first they traded the morning of market days, checking "Where will it rain today?" Now they trade "Where will it rain this weekend?" starting Monday, when prices are more in their favor.
That protection gave them the confidence to sign on for something they wouldn't have risked before: 43 straight days selling tarts in Union Square.
Small businesses live and die by the weather. Now they can hedge it.
Vendors, restaurants, and anyone who works outdoors can hedge rain on Kalshi today.
Read more about La Méchante
Seen in the Wild
Meme of the Week
Think you’ve got the best Kalshi or prediction market meme? Send it our way.
Each week, we’ll feature one community-submitted meme in The Pursuit of Probability. If yours gets picked, we’ll send you some Kalshi merch.
Submit: Grassroots@kalshi.com
Behind the Market
Ever wonder what the people building Kalshi are actually like?
Send us what you want to know. We’ll pick the best questions and get answers straight from the source.
Submit: Grassroots@kalshi.com
One More Thing
Taylor Swift drops four new songs Friday with The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore: “Patient Zero,” “Cleveland!,” “Pink Clouding” and “Babylon.”
As of Wednesday, Kalshi traders were putting a 91% chance on “Patient Zero” debuting at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100.
Apparently 2026 still had room for a Taylor Swift market.
Check out the market.Outcomes discussed may not be not representative of overall customer performance or success. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance