Issue #05 • Week of October 04, 2026

The Pursuit of Probability

Prediction markets are becoming more than a place to forecast the future. They're becoming infrastructure for it.

This week, four more tribal nations announced prediction market apps powered by Kalshi. Kalshi launched its first stock index perpetual future. And Dancing with the Stars became another example of how probabilities are finding their way into pop culture.

Meanwhile, a federal court in Illinois backed access to federally regulated markets, even as the NFL entered the Supreme Court debate over who gets to regulate them.

Different corners of the same story: prediction markets are becoming part of how people follow the world, participate in markets, and think about what comes next.

Freedom to Forecast

A win in Illinois. A bigger debate in Washington.
On October 2, a federal judge granted preliminary protections to Kalshi, the CFTC and other market operators against certain Illinois enforcement actions. The court found that the contracts at issue likely qualify as federally regulated swaps. The ruling is preliminary, not a final decision.
Meanwhile, the NFL filed a brief supporting New Jersey's request for Supreme Court review, arguing that states should retain authority over sports-related prediction markets. The American Gaming Association also backed review. The Supreme Court has not agreed to hear the case.
The stakes are straightforward: whether Americans can access one federally regulated national marketplace or face a different set of restrictions depending on their state.
Join the movement. Join Freedom to Forecast.

Power, Priced

A month from the midterms, political power has a price.
The American Power Index continues to track how traders see the balance of power between Democrats and Republicans heading into November.
Unlike a poll, KPOW brings together expectations for control of the House, Senate and presidency with the current distribution of political power.
With Election Day approaching, every shift in the index offers another view of how the political landscape is being repriced.
The election hasn't happened yet.
The market is already looking ahead.
Explore the American Power Index

New at Kalshi

Four tribes. Four new prediction market apps.
Four tribal nations announced partnerships with Kalshi this week to build independently owned prediction market businesses.
The Alabama-Quassarte Tribal Town in Oklahoma is launching PokkeTrades. In California, the Greenville Rancheria, Kletsel Dehe Wintun Nation and Alturas Indian Rancheria are introducing their own platforms.
Each tribe controls its app, brand and customer relationships. Kalshi provides the underlying exchange infrastructure.
For tribal communities exploring new sources of revenue, prediction markets represent another way to participate in a growing financial category.
And for Kalshi, the partnerships demonstrate something bigger: an exchange that can power businesses beyond its own app.
Read the announcement
The stock market meets Kalshi Pro.
Kalshi launched US 500 perpetual futures on October 6, giving eligible traders a way to take long or short positions on an index tracking 500 of America's largest companies.
Unlike traditional futures, perpetuals don't have a fixed expiration date.
Kalshi also added copper and aluminum perpetuals this week, expanding its markets for industrial commodities.
From forecasting events to trading exposure to stocks and metals, Kalshi is becoming a broader financial exchange.
Explore Kalshi Pro

Kalshi in Culture

The ballroom has a probability problem.
Every week, Dancing with the Stars gives America another reason to argue about who deserves to stay.
Now those arguments have market prices.
Kalshi's Season 35 winner market has drawn millions of dollars in trading volume, with viewers putting probabilities on their favorites long before the finale.
A competition built around judges' scores, fan votes and unpredictable performances now has a live measure of what the crowd expects.
The judges have their paddles.
The internet has a market.
Explore the entertainment markets

Seen in the Wild

One More Thing

The internet has been waiting for Grand Theft Auto VI for what feels like a lifetime.

And the speculation hasn't stopped at the release date.

Kalshi now has a market on which artists will feature on the GTA VI soundtrack, with names including The Weeknd and Sexyy Red attracting traders' attention.

We haven't even played the game.

The soundtrack already has a market.

Explore culture markets

Outcomes discussed may not be not representative of overall customer performance or success. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance