Issue #07 • Week of October 18, 2026
The Pursuit of Probability
The Future Has a Price
Election Day is getting closer. The World Series starts tomorrow. And the markets are already telling a story about both.
This week, Kalshi's American Power Index moved further toward Democrats, giving us another snapshot of how expectations for Washington are changing ahead of the midterms.
Meanwhile, the fight over prediction market access is drawing closer to the Supreme Court, and two teams chasing their first World Series title are giving baseball fans something new to forecast.
Different stories. Same idea.
The future is uncertain. Now there's a way to see what people think comes next.
Freedom to Forecast
One country. Fifty states. One big question.
The fight over prediction market access continues.
This week, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said the dispute over federal and state authority may ultimately reach the Supreme Court. New Jersey has already asked the Court to take up the issue, while legal battles continue in other states.
At the center is a simple question: should Americans have access to one federally regulated national marketplace, or should that access depend on where they live?
Join the movement. Join Freedom to Forecast.
Power, Priced
Washington keeps moving blue.
Last week, Kalshi's American Power Index stood at +3.80 D. This week's snapshot shows +5.70 D.
That's a further 1.90-point move toward Democrats.
KPOW combines expectations for control of the House, Senate, and presidency with the current distribution of political power. It provides a single view of how the balance of power in Washington is expected to change.
At the beginning of the year, Republicans held a substantial lead. Now, with the midterms less than two weeks away, the market's outlook has shifted decisively in the other direction.
An election is a single day.
Expectations are moving every minute.
Explore the American Power Index
New at Kalshi
Your ballot. Your forecast.
With Election Day approaching, Kalshi is making it easier to see exactly what's at stake where you live.
The new My Ballot feature, built with data from Ballotpedia, shows users the races on their ballot alongside Kalshi's market forecasts where available.
From the biggest Senate contests to down-ballot races that rarely make national headlines, voters can now see both who's running and what the market expects.
National politics gets the attention. Local elections still shape everyday life.
Explore My Ballot
Kalshi in Culture
Two teams. Zero rings. One World Series.
The World Series starts Friday. And baseball is guaranteed a first-time champion.
The Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays have never won it all.
Milwaukee swept the defending champion Dodgers to get here. Tampa Bay knocked out Cleveland to secure the American League pennant.
As of October 22, Kalshi markets gave Milwaukee roughly a 65% chance of winning the series.
But baseball has a way of making favorites uncomfortable.
Two franchises chasing history. Seven games at most. One trophy neither has ever held.
Explore World Series markets
Seen in the Wild
One More Thing
Hollywood's newest villain has to face the critics first.
There's a new Clayface movie, and the reviews have their own prediction market.
As of October 22, Kalshi traders were giving the film a 74% chance of scoring above 70 on Rotten Tomatoes.
Before audiences can decide whether Gotham's shapeshifting villain is any good, the market is already forecasting what critics will think.
Clayface can change his face.
The Rotten Tomatoes score is harder to hide.
Explore culture marketsOutcomes discussed may not be not representative of overall customer performance or success. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance