Issue #08 • Week of October 25, 2026
The Pursuit of Probability
The Big Leagues
Four days until Election Day. Milwaukee has its first World Series title. And the S&P and Kalshi have teamed up.
This week, the NBA named Kalshi a preferred prediction market exchange, Kalshi announced $1 billion in new funding, and the American Power Index continued to show a Democratic advantage heading into the midterms.
Meanwhile, the federal government is stepping further into the fight over prediction market access.
Different developments. One bigger picture.
Prediction markets are becoming part of how people follow the world, understand uncertainty, and participate in what comes next.
Freedom to Forecast
One national marketplace. One federal regulator.
This week, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed a lawsuit against Utah, asking a federal court to block state enforcement actions against federally regulated prediction markets.
The CFTC argues that Congress gave it exclusive authority over these exchanges. The new lawsuit has not yet produced a ruling.
In Illinois, the next step is underway after a federal judge found earlier this month that certain state restrictions were likely overridden by federal law. The parties are due to submit proposed injunction language on October 29. The decision remains preliminary, with separate questions over state fees unresolved.
And the Supreme Court question remains open. New Jersey's petition is still pending, with Kalshi's response due November 9. The American Gaming Association and Casino Association of New Jersey have filed briefs supporting Supreme Court review.
Kalshi's position is straightforward: "no single state should have a veto over it."
A federally regulated national exchange should not become a patchwork of different marketplaces depending on where someone lives.
Join the movement. Join Freedom to Forecast.
Power, Priced
Four days out. The map is still moving.
Kalshi's American Power Index now stands at +5.60 D, compared with +5.70 D last week.
Nearly unchanged across the week, but up 0.8 points toward Democrats in the last 24 hours.
KPOW brings together market expectations for control of the House, Senate, and presidency, alongside the current distribution of political power.
At the start of 2026, the index leaned heavily Republican. Now, as Americans prepare to vote on November 3, it remains firmly on the Democratic side.
The markets aren't counting votes. They're measuring expectations before the votes are counted.
Election Day gives us the result.
The market shows how expectations got there.
Explore the American Power Index
New at Kalshi
The NBA is officially in.
The NBA has named Kalshi a Preferred Prediction Market Exchange.
The partnership brings official NBA data into authorized Kalshi markets, along with direct cooperation on market integrity, consumer protection, and athlete safety.
It also gives Kalshi rights to use NBA branding and collaborate with the league on fan engagement.
Basketball already has one of the most recognizable scoreboards in sports. Now the league is helping establish a framework for another way to follow the game.
Read the NBA partnership announcementA billion dollars for what's next.
Kalshi announced a new $1 billion funding round this week at a $40 billion valuation, led by Sequoia and Wellington.
The investment will support Kalshi's expansion into a broader financial exchange, building on prediction markets with products such as perpetual futures and new institutional trading capabilities.
The larger ambition is becoming clearer.
Prediction markets opened the door. There's a much bigger financial marketplace to build.
Read about the fundingWall Street meets the future.
Kalshi is partnering with S&P Dow Jones Indices, the company behind the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average.
The partnership will bring markets tied to some of finance's most recognizable benchmarks to Kalshi, with outcomes settled using official S&P data.
And it works both ways. S&P will help develop new indices using Kalshi's prediction market data, creating ways to track expectations across politics, economics, sports, and more.
For decades, indices have helped investors understand where markets stand.
Now, they could help the world understand where things are headed.
Explore the S&P partnershipMore safeguards for younger traders.
Kalshi is introducing new protections for users ages 18 to 20, including a default $2,500 monthly deposit limit and alerts designed to flag concentrated trading positions.
The company is also partnering with ConnectSafely and Parent ProTech to develop educational guides for families.
A growing marketplace needs protections that grow with it.
Explore the new safeguards
Kalshi in Culture
Milwaukee finally got its moment.
Last week, two franchises entered the World Series chasing a title neither had ever won.
Now one of them has.
The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the Tampa Bay Rays in five games, securing the first World Series championship in franchise history on Wednesday night.
Before the series began, Kalshi traders gave Milwaukee roughly a 65% chance of winning it all.
The Brewers took the first three games, Tampa Bay fought back with an extra-innings win in Game 4, and Milwaukee finished the job in Game 5.
For Brewers fans, the wait lasted decades.
For prediction markets, it was another week of watching expectations become outcomes.
Revisit the World Series market
Seen in the Wild
One More Thing
Jay-Z has 99 Problems. Now there's a market for his first song.
Jay-Z is officially headlining the 2027 Super Bowl halftime show.
Naturally, the next question is already trading on Kalshi: what song will he perform first?
From "Empire State of Mind" to "Dirt Off Your Shoulder" to "Public Service Announcement," traders are putting prices on how one of hip-hop's biggest catalogs might open on the world's biggest stage.
The headliner is confirmed.
The first note is still anyone's guess.
Explore the halftime opener marketOutcomes discussed may not be not representative of overall customer performance or success. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance